NBC12 Weather Insider

Supermoon (But is it really?)

Last year, I made a big hubbub on TV and on the internet about the "Supermoon."  This year...not so much. Last year's was historically close to earth.

First: what's a supermoon?  It's a term used to describe a full moon coinciding with the moon's closest approach to earth during its orbit (perigee). 

This evening's full moon will likely be big and gorgeous and will appear larger than average but it's not quite the astonomical event it was last year when the moon was a bit closer to earth (not that you could tell a difference between tonight's full moon and the 'famous' one from last year).

For tonight and tomorrow night, though, the weather should be perfect.  The combination of clear skies and super low humidity for May will make this a wonderful evening for Moon-gazing.

"Supermoon" or not, take a few minutes to enjoy the view this evening.  I think you'll enjoy it. 

Cheers,

Andrew Freiden.

Virginia Cicadas Arriving but not Everywhere

Post By Andrew Freiden
5/16/2013

The Cicadas are showing up in force now but their appearance in the Greater Richmond area has been sparse at best.  I continue to think that eastern Henrico and the Tri-Cities will be left out of the fun.

Here's the latest map of cicada reports from magicicada.org . 

I've zoomed in to the Richmond Metro area

Click here to access the map directly (it's zoomable)

 

Hurricane forecasts trickling in

Several hurricane season outlooks have surfaced over the past couple of months. Most of these early-season predictions are calling for a more-active than"normal" Atlantic tropical season.  It should be noted that NOAA has not issued a public forecast yet, but it will be out quite soon, and I'm guessing it will probably line up pretty much with the other forecasts.

A common characteristic among all of these pre-season outlooks is that they focus on numbers of storms, with best-guesses of how many might become major storms.  The reality, that can only be determined after-the-fact, is that there is much room for error, and that sheer numbers don't necessarily portend probabilities of certain land impacts.

Case in point is last season. It was the third most active on record, with 19 named storms. It was also predicted to be a below-normal activity season. Add to that, Sandy, which proved to be one of the most costly and devastating landfalling storms on record.  The takeaway is simply this; early-season forecasts are interesting and can give us a general idea of the season ahead, but we should always be prepared for the worst, since one storm that hits land can far overshadow any impact from 10 or 15 storms that stay over water. The numbers in the forecasts can sometimes deceive.

-Jim

Cicada Pictures!

Post By Andrew Freiden
5/3/2013

We got our first Cicada pictures into the weather office.  PLUS the added bonus of pictures of the holes in the ground.  The holes are where the cicadas come from and are typically found at the base of trees.

The pictures are courtesy of Christie Harman from Louisa County. 

 "I took them yesterday evening when I arrived home.

The ground shot is of one of the areas where my husband caught them emerging from the ground.

My children have always enjoyed hunting for their empty shells left behind, but it was extremely fascinating to find them moving about.

Even this morning at 5 a.m. I could hear them outside making a racket."

Thanks Christie-- looking forward to seeing more of these.  And scroll down to the next post for Cicada Information all in one spot.

Virginia Cicada Invasion 2013

Post By: Andrew Freiden
Here they come! *Updated May 1, 2013 soil temperature is 62° as of April 30th.  64° is apparently the magic number.  We are getting close... and many places are already seeing them.

Central Virginia is buzzing as the cicadas are arriving.  The mysterious insects are expected to emerge en masse this month after spending 17 years underground to spend a few weeks above ground eating, finding a mate, and making lots of noise.  The numbers will be amazing.  If you haven't witnessed this, you'll be blown away by the numbers of insects. 

But we won't ALL see clouds of the harmless Cicadas.  Here's a map showing that counties east of I-95 won't see as any or nearly as many as areas WEST of town will.

I've written on the map in black to give you an idea of where Richmond, DC, and Charlottesville are.

map from: magicicada.org
*From what I can tell, Western Henrico and Chesterfield are much more likely to see Cicadas vs. the Eastern side of those counties. 
 * The triangles/circles/dots are reports of brood II sightings in past "visits"

Some cicadas show up every year.  But those Cicada's are different from what we expect here. Click here to read Dr. Arthur Evans' explanation of what to look for
http://static.ideastations.org/Cicada-Differences.pdf 

And you can click here to listen to Dr. Evans explain this difference on WCVE

http://ideastations.org/radio/archive/2013-04-16-cicadas-what-s-difference

I follow Dr. Evans on Facebook.  I recommend that you do the same-- I suspect he'll be posting lots about the Cicadas once they start showing up.

https://www.facebook.com/Dr.Art.Evans.entomologist#!/

Once they arrive in your yard, Submit your CICADA observations here:

http://magicicada.org/magicicada_ii.php

 But don’t forget to share your pictures with Central Virginia via Send it to 12

We’ll share pictures online and on TV that get submitted here.

You can also join the discussion on our Facebook page.

 And remember.  The Cicadas will be numerous, but harmless.  Although they may do some damage to young trees.

-Andrew Freiden

 

Grand Totals

These grand-total snowfall numbers will be largely from the surprise burst of heavy snow that fell Sunday late afternoon into early evening. That snowburst that lasted about 3 hours dumped from 2-5" of snow over much of the area, but once it stopped, it quickly compacted along with some melting, leaving lesser amounts on the ground over most spots. The rest of tonight will bring another round into the pre-sunrise hours Monday, but latest model trends are showing only minor additional accumulations from this. -Jim

Storm Update 3/24/13

Once again, it's a difficult snow forecast.  Yet another low pressure tracking near the coast means we need to watch how heavy the precip is, and what the temperatures are doing.  This afternoon should stay warm enough (upper 30s) where most of us get rain mixed with sleet.  We could see some wet snow flakes in the air this evening, but most of it will likely melt at first. Best chance of accumulating snow will be overnight, when temperatures drop to 31°-33°.

There is a wide range of snow totals in the forecast models once again. For now, here is what we're thinking for storm snow totals...

As long as temperatures stay in the middle or upper 30s this evening, snow will not stick to the roads in Richmond.  However snow could stark to stick this evening WEST (Farmville, Fluvanna, Charlottesville). This is why we will have to monitor temperatures later today.

Just for fun - here's what several models are forecasting for snow...

The "NAM" is the most aggressive, but because most of the snow will be melting at first, this is unlikely we see that much snow. This afternoon will be more of a rain/sleet event than snow.

Don't focus on the specifics.  Here are the important things you need to know:

1.  Snow is likely. Although the forecasted totals may not be perfect, just know that roads will be slick/slushy tonight and tomorrow morning.
2. Snow is more likely to accumulate north and west of Richmond overnight.
3. Even if it doesn't snow in your neghborhood - temperatures could drop to 32° tomorrow morning, and there could be icy spots on roads.

Stay alert before you head out on the roads. Jim and Ros are in this evening on NBC12 at 6pm & 11pm.  I (Kevin) will be in with Andrew tomorrow morning. Our first newscast in the morning is at 4am.

3/23/13 Morning Update (Kevin Jeanes)

Hopefully you can enjoy today without the fear of the cold tomorrow.  The storm is still on track, but with a few variations in the forecast.  Right now, this appears to be mainly a rain event for Richmond.  However, a few inches are still possible in our northwest zones (Charlottesville, Louisa, Fluvanna, Buckingham - and maybe western Goochland).

Timing: Rain possible in southern Virginia by mid-morning Sunday. Central VA may not see rain until later in the afternoon. Sleet could mix with rain into Sunday night.  Rain changes to wet snow overnight (early Monday morning).

Impacts:
     Metro Richmond: Slick and slushy roads (especially bridges) during Monday morning commute - dusting of snow possible. Still could be light rain or sleet in the afternoon.

     North/West of Richmond: Up to a few inches of wet and heavy snow. Charlottesville could see a switchover to snow as early as Sunday afternoon. Totals will be significantly higher from Charlottesville to the WEST.

     East/South of Richmond: Mainly a rain event. Temperatures could still border 32° Monday morning, so there could be some icy patches on wet roads.

 

Stay tuned for updates.

 

Sunday Night-Monday Morning Snow Chances

Chances for snow, mainly Sunday night through Monday morning, will be greatest west and northwest of RVA, but the metro area could see a light slushy accumulation of wet snow by Monday morning as well. Look for mainly rain during the afternoon and early evening Sunday before colder air forces a changeover, mostly from around I-95 corridor and west. -Jim

Winter Continues Into Spring (Kevin Jeanes)

It was 71° at RIC yesterday, and we're talking about snow tomorrow morning.  It's unlikely we get any more than a dusting of wet, slushy snow on the roads in Richmond, but areas north and west of Richmond could get an inch or two. This, once again, will depend on how hard the rain/snow is coming down.  Either way, I'd be prepared for a slower than normal commute to work.

How can we still get snow on St. Patrick's Day you ask?  Well that's not all.

Looking way ahead in the computer models  - Tuesday March 26th - there are signs of a significant winter storm.  Keep in mind that anything more than 3 days out in the models is far from a guarantee. 10 days out - very unlikely this comes to fruition.

 

This is just a sign that Winter doesn't want to go away just yet.  We expect below average temperatures through the end of the month (image from Climate Prediction Center below). 

As for the potential snow storm... we'll just have to wait and see.  Don't get your hopes up for snow though, even though most "snow lovers" are even saying they're ready for Spring. Snow is difficult to come by in late March.  Just for fun - here's the top 10 snow events in March in Richmond from the National Weather Service Wakefield.