Good Sunday to you! Samantha Roberts here...
No major changes to the forecast, as of this morning. Currently, an area of low pressure is moving through portions of the Midwest and it'll continue to move east into the Ohio Valley tonight. This same system will pass just south of our area tomorrow, move up the Mid-Atlantic coast and up the coast of New England into Tuesday.
As Ros mentioned to you last night, these systems tend to produce only light amounts of precipitation over our area as the mountains to the west usually "wring out" a good bit of the moisture.
Here's our thinking.
Rain moves in during the pre-dawn hours of Monday. Periods of rain linger off and on through much of the morning and potentially into the afternoon. (NOTE: We will NOT see much, if ANYTHING, in the way of accumulating snowfall during the day Monday. You will have school Monday, so do your homework! Our best time window for seeing accumulating snowfall will be Monday NIGHT into Tuesday MORNING.)
By late-afternoon tomorrow into tomorrow evening, as colder air filters in, we'll see a change over to a rain/snow mix, and then all snow Monday night. The areas which will see the highest accumulations will be spots closer to the Bay and east of I-95. This would be generated by the rapid development and intensification of low pressure off the coast of North Carolina and Virginia. As Ros mentioned to you yesterday evening, there is likely to be a FINE line between areas that see accumulating snow and little, or no snow at all. Needless to say, that makes this a very tricky forecast.
Here's our thinking on accumulations/totals:
Richmond/Petersburg/areas to the north: Up to a dusting/coating of snow
Northern Neck: 1"-2", with isolated higher totals
Middle Peninsula: 1" or less
Areas southwest of Richmond: Little, IF ANY, accumulating snowfall.
So, what's the room for error here? We do think, depending upon where the storm develops once it's off-shore, and depending upon the track of the storm, that portions of the Northern Neck and Eastern Shore could see isolated HIGHER totals than we mentioned above. I would like to stress that this will not be a major snow storm for us but it IS our first chance for seeing something this season that is at the very least, measurable...or just plain STICKS.
Of course, we'll get in a new round of data going into the afternoon, so Ros will have another update for you tonight on NBC12 News at 6:00 PM and 11:00 PM. Stay tuned for updates on TV, here on the NBC12 Weather Insider, NBC12.com, and on Facebook and Twitter.
Have a wonderful rest of the weekend!